Transformative Narrow AI
Even if current machines learning techniques have fundamental limitations they could still radically transform our world.
Here is a small selection of the progress that has been made in the field of machine learning over the last few weeks:
Improve a matrix multiplication algorithm used in its own training.
Improve itself autonomously through trial and error.
Improve its reasoning abilities by self-thinking without external inputs and based on unlabeled datasets.
Generate math theorems and turn them into verified formal proofs.
Almost every day there is a new paper that yields drastic improvements such as allowing small models to outperform models with several tens of times more parameters.
If you believe that this will not lead to a radical transformation of our world over the next 10 years you must believe that progress will soon stop. But how confident are you that this intelligence explosion is going to stop before it becomes unstoppable?
However, it doesn't take a technological singularity for artificial intelligence to have a transformative impact.
Even if the current machine learning techniques don't lead to artificial general intelligence, combining everything into a coherent framework, fine-tuning, synthetic data, and data from increasingly cheap and ubiquitous low-power sensors will enable the following and much more:
1. The Great Equalizer
Real-time voice and text translation, on par with the fictional universal translator known from Star Trek, will break all language barriers. This will truly turn the world into a global village by allowing people to work everywhere and make friends with everyone. All media will become accessible to all people irrespective of the language they speak.
Everyone will be able to write, code, and create art. The left side of the bell curve will be augmented by various AI assistants interpreting and answering statements and questions they would otherwise have trouble understanding. These assistants will further serve as personal teachers for the children of poor people.
Research that previously required dozens of scientists and thousands of experiments will be completely automated and carried out virtually. This will also massively boost the power of small groups to create havoc. For example, recently, a machine learning model trained to discover drugs was turned on its head and within six hours generated 40,000 toxic molecules, including the VX nerve agent.
2. The Social Collapse
Virtual assistants like Amazon’s Alexa will be good enough to hold conversations that may continue for days, weeks, or even months. This will alleviate loneliness and make computer games much more interesting. As a result, most social interactions will be between humans and machines.
3. The Great Flood
It will become increasingly difficult to figure out what content was created by humans and what was AI-generated. The vast majority of all media will have been created by artificial intelligence. Humans will be drowned in a flood of synthetic content. As a result, people will refuse to trust anything they see and hear.
4. The Neuro Revolution
Synergistic effects between machine learning and noninvasive brain-computer interfaces will revolutionize how we interact with technology. No more keyboards, mice, or touchscreens. A lot will happen before you become consciously aware that you want it to happen, e.g. turning on the lights.
5. The Medical Revolution
Machine learning will advance medical monitoring and will allow wearable devices and sensors (e.g. smart toilets) to detect many medical conditions such as cancer or heart problems early enough to successfully treat them.
6. A Total Loss of Privacy
With a brief glimpse of your face, various machine learning models will quickly extract rich multidimensional information about you, such as whether you are ill, your cognitive ability, and what genetic conditions you have. Gaze detection built into smartphones, VR, and AR headsets will allow companies to gauge your personality and interests like never before. Eye tracking-based lie detection already has an accuracy of 86-88%. Lip reading will allow them to know what you are talking about even if your microphones are turned off.
Authoritarian states will be able to permanently track their citizens' every move and implement stable and permanent tyrannies.
7. A New Kind of War
Current machine learning techniques will dramatically change the power balances between nations. There will be those nations who are capable of autonomous warfare and the mass production of drones and aimbots and those who can be subjugated within hours.
(Note: This quick commentary got a bit too long for an addendum to the regular link collections so I gave it its own post.)