Links for 2024-11-08

AI:

1. GameGen-X: Interactive Open-world Game Video Generation https://gamegen-x.github.io/

2. Microsoft has recently filed a patent application for a technical method that could reduce or stop AI hallucinations https://uk.pcmag.com/ai/155219/microsoft-wants-to-patent-a-fix-for-ai-hallucinations

3. Microsoft revealed Magnetic-One. It’s a powerful, open-source AI system that autonomously completes complex, multi-step tasks by using multiple specialized agents. It uses an Orchestrator agent that directs four specialized agents: WebSurfer for browser operations, FileSurfer for file management, Coder for programming tasks, and ComputerTerminal for console operations. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/articles/magentic-one-a-generalist-multi-agent-system-for-solving-complex-tasks/

4. Micosoft AI that simulates proteins with more than 10,000 atoms with quantum accuracy, orders of magnitude faster than ever before. AI2BMD's results match those of wet-lab experiments, enabling new biomedical research advances. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08127-z

5. Google accidentally leaked its upcoming 'Jarvis' AI agent on the Chrome extension store for a short time before pulling it down. Still, some users managed to download https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/jarvis-ai-is-real-google-accidentally-leaks-its-ai-agent-that-browses-the-web-for-you

6. The Giant Supercomputer Built to Transform an Entire Country—and Paid For by Ozempic https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-ozempic-novo-nordisk-gefion-ai-supercomputer-bed48309 [no paywall: https://archive.is/LdeGA]

7. New, ARIA-backed project aims to unlock radically cheaper AI hardware https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2024-11-06-new-aria-backed-project-aims-unlock-radically-cheaper-ai-hardware

8. Amazon is reportedly negotiating a second multibillion-dollar investment in Anthropic, with the condition that it uses Amazon chips to power its AI training servers https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/07/amazon-may-up-its-investment-in-anthropic-on-one-condition/

9. Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product Innovation — GenAI increases novel discoveries: a 39% increase in patent filings; It boosts the best performers by acting as a co-intelligence https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/artificial-intelligence-scientific-discovery-and-product-innovation.html

10. Understanding LLMs from Scratch Using Middle School Math https://towardsdatascience.com/understanding-llms-from-scratch-using-middle-school-math-e602d27ec876 [archived version: https://archive.is/NYlPS]

11. Palantir will be the first industry partner to bring Claude models to classified environments for U.S. government intelligence and defense operations. https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2024/Anthropic-and-Palantir-Partner-to-Bring-Claude-AI-Models-to-AWS-for-U.S.-Government-Intelligence-and-Defense-Operations/

12. Brad Gerstner says AI is a Pascal's Wager for companies where the upside is potentially infinite and missing out could be a bad outcome so the best bet is to buy GPUs https://youtu.be/tBU5UPI03Rg?si=k9fkDuql9OgMTO39&t=2566

13. Jensen Huang says over the next 10 years computing performance will double or triple every year and energy requirements decrease 2-3x per year in what he describes as "a hyper Moore's Law curve" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hw7EnjC68Fw

14. How To Build The Future: Sam Altman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXCBz_8hM9w

15. DimensionX: Create Any 3D and 4D Scenes from a Single Image with Controllable Video Diffusion https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.04928

Miscellaneous:

1. Are black holes filled with tension, and thus grow in mass as the universe grows in volume? https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/tension-filled-black-holes

2. All cells—even kidney cells—can count, detect patterns, store memories, and do so similarly to brain cells. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53922-x

3. “The F22 Raptor canopy ... comprises two sheets of polycarbonate, sandwiched between two layers of optical glass, fusion bonded in an autoclave and drape formed over a canopy blank ... A metallic coating of indium-tin-oxide is added to the canopy to reflect the radar waves, giving it a golden tint.” https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/29107/why-does-the-canopy-of-the-f-22-raptor-have-a-golden-tinge

4. A hereditarian revolution, maybe https://www.emilkirkegaard.com/p/a-hereditarian-revolution-maybe

5. Did you know students at Oxford in 1335 were solving problems about objects moving with constant acceleration? “Medieval scientists were deeply confused about the connection between force and velocity: it took Newton to realize force is proportional to acceleration. But in the early 1300s, a group of researchers called the Oxford Calculators made huge progress in understanding objects that move with changing velocity. That was an incredibly important step.” https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2024/11/07/the-mean-speed-theorem/

Political forecasting:

1. This article is excellent: “Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced” https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/congrats-to-polymarket-but-i-still

2. “No, a decision shouldn't be judged based on the result. The fact that someone won the lottery doesn't make his decision to buy a negative expected value lottery ticket smart, from a financial point of view.” https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1glu5em/a_decision_isnt_wrong_just_because_you_failed/

3. “And guess what: if you collect 100 markets with a 6% chance of a team winning and look at the results you'll see them win 6 times.” https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1854588078419329060

US political charts:

Ukraine:

1. “As stated by the media, only 30% of the shells Russia is currently using are manufactured domestically. If this is accurate, Russian Soviet-era ammo arsenals should be empty by now. To prove or refute this claim, I’ve reviewed Russian arsenals, and here are my observations.” https://x.com/a_from_s/status/1853848360525902227

2. Russian soldiers filmed their own column after coming under Ukrainian fire. Several vehicles are burning while lots of other destroyed equipment can be seen as well. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1854796197443113449

3. “Be careful before watching! Cases of documented suicides and suicide attempts by Russian infantrymen at the front in Ukraine are quite common. And their frequency only continues to increase with each passing month.” https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1854893597436334460

4. Russian state TV host Olga Skabeeva: "Putin will win and conquer all of Ukraine. After that, enthusiastic and very angry Russia will show up at EU borders, having added Ukraine's army to its own. This sounds like a tremendous plan." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLS8raVQr3A

5. 2022 mobilization in the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic: Tens of thousands of local residents were forcibly mobilized for the war (according to one estimate, up to 140,000 people as of mid-June 2022). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_mobilization_in_the_Donetsk_People%27s_Republic_and_the_Luhansk_People%27s_Republic

6. German president roasted over Russia policy https://x.com/bctallis/status/1854757434138444164