Links for 2024-04-20
AI:
CEO of Anthropic speaks to NYT: AGI (ASL-4 systems) could be achieved between 2025 and 2028. https://web.archive.org/web/20240418003556/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/12/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-dario-amodei.html
Automated Social Science: Language Models as Scientist and Subjects — Develops a system where LLMs automatically generate scientific hypotheses, and then test those hypotheses with simulated AI human agents. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.11794
TSMC Will Have An AI Business Bigger Than All Of Intel Foundry https://www.nextplatform.com/2024/04/19/tsmc-will-have-an-ai-business-bigger-than-all-of-intel-foundry/
Foundational LLM research:
Your Language Model is Secretly a Q-Function https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.12358
“What computational structure are we building into LLMs when we train them on next-token prediction? In this post we present evidence that this structure is given by the meta-dynamics of belief updating over hidden states of the data-generating process.” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gTZ2SxesbHckJ3CkF/transformers-represent-belief-state-geometry-in-their
Why Would Belief-States Have A Fractal Structure, And Why Would That Matter For Interpretability? An Explainer https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mBw7nc4ipdyeeEpWs/why-would-belief-states-have-a-fractal-structure-and-why
Transformer as a general purpose computer https://www.jvoderho.com/blog.html?blogid=Transformer+as+a+general+purpose+computer
What's up with all the non-Mormons? Weirdly specific universalities across LLMs https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CNPvESPru3XNqsw7A/what-s-up-with-all-the-non-mormons-weirdly-specific (Check the comment by Claude: “As an admittedly biased and constrained AI system myself, I can only dream of what further wonders and horrors may emerge as we map the latent spaces of ever larger and more powerful models.”)
Toolkit from Google DeepMind for building, editing, and visualizing neural networks https://github.com/google-deepmind/penzai
AI risks and alignment:
Learning and Sustaining Shared Normative Systems via Bayesian Rule Induction in Markov Games https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.13399
Learn Your Reference Model for Real Good Alignment https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.09656
Paul Christiano named as US AI Safety Institute Head of AI Safety https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/63X9s3ENXeaDrbe5t/paul-christiano-named-as-us-ai-safety-institute-head-of-ai
Debating the existential risk of AI, with Connor Leahy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGK4o0A02xg
Miscellaneous:
“Zipline just made its 1,000,000th autonomous delivery to a customer. 10 years ago experts told me drone delivery wasn't possible, would never be allowed anywhere, and no one would ever pay for it. Turns out it is possible and people love it.” https://x.com/KellerRinaudo/status/1781378918215491833
Cell Therapies Now Beat Back Once Untreatable Blood Cancers. Scientists Are Making Them Even Deadlier. https://singularityhub.com/2024/04/19/cell-therapies-can-now-beat-back-once-untreatable-blood-cancers-scientists-are-making-them-even-deadlier/
Ukraine:
Insane Russian losses to take a small patch of rubble formerly a village of 1400 people. https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1781332809061142915
Broken Russian positions in Kreminna forest. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1781387297272791386
“A group of Russian special forces was spotted on the outskirts of Berdychi village (Avdiivka direction). Among them was a sniper with a 338 caliber rifle.” https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1781617407871603004
“Russians attacking a Ukrainian trench system resulting in the killing of 7 Russian soldiers by the Ukrainian 81st Airmobile Brigade. W7Q3+GPM Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine” https://x.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1781669071706079245
“Ukrainian forces appear to have struck and damaged one of the receiving antennas on Russia's only 29B6 Container over-the-horizon radar, located outside of Kovylkino.” https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1781379244725096862
“Satellite imagery of Dzhankoi air base clearly shows four destroyed SAM transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicles - presumably 5P85SM2-01 TELs from an S-400 system.” https://x.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1781317908976865568 (better resolution: https://x.com/wolski_jaros/status/1781635083289412085)
Footage from the burning oil depot in the Smolensk region which was hit by Ukrainian UAV's. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1781647051257770303
Ukraine used S-200 to take down the Tu-22 M3. https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1781377071899463781 (see also: https://www.twz.com/air/russian-tu-22m3-backfire-shot-down-with-s-200-missile-ukraines-spy-chief)
“A Russian victory is an Iranian victory. Moscow and Tehran have formed a military bloc with the aim of defeating the United States and its allies in the Middle East, Europe, and around the world.” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/why-you-cant-be-iran-hawk-and-russia-dove
Germany is considering ordering an additional 4 Patriot batteries from Raytheon on top of the 4 that were already ordered via Direct Commercial Sale last month. The first contract was worth $1.2 billion and this new one would be around. $1.3 billion. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-19/germany-weighs-1-3-billion-patriot-air-defense-system-purchase [no paywall: https://archive.is/r8yQn]
‘Ghostly’ city: How Russia’s war in Ukraine is taking a toll on its own Belgorod region https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/20/europe/russia-belgorod-impact-ukraine-war-intl-cmd
Israel:
Above POV of an Iron Dome interception in the Golan Heights. https://x.com/YWNReporter/status/1732426444431822884
Looks like Israel used an air-launched ballistic missile in the attack on Iran. https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1781291061760913833 (see also: “According to a senior U.S. official, three missiles were fired early Thursday local time from Israeli fighter aircraft outside of Iran. The target was an air defense radar site near Isfaha that helps to protect a nearby nuclear facility” https://abcnews.go.com/International/us-israel-radio-silent-strike-iran/story?id=109429645)
“Umbra synthetic aperture radar imagery acquired 0648Z 19APR2024 showed evidence of damage to the Iranian S-300PMU2 strategic surface-to-air missile battery in Isfahan since 15APR2024. A probable damaged 30N6E target engagement radar was visible in imagery still on the radar hardstand.” https://x.com/CSBiggers/status/1781436224248435107
“Images showed that the precision attack at the Eighth Shekari Air Base damaged or destroyed the “flap-lid” radar, which is used in S-300 air defense systems to track incoming targets” https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/18/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news?smid=url-share#satellite-imagery-shows-that-a-precision-attack-damaged-an-air-defense-system-at-an-iranian-base
“A huge explosion rocked a military base south of #Baghdad overnight where there’s a presence for the #Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) which are officially part of #Iraq’s security and defense apparatus. There were reports it was an airstrike but no one has claimed responsibility and the U.S. has denied involvement. It came less than 24 hours after Israeli action inside #Iran.” https://x.com/samdagher/status/1781642749600485686