Links for 2024-02-13
AI:
“…each GPT costs between 25x and 100x the last one. Let’s say 30x on average. That means we can expect GPT-6 to cost $75 billion, and GPT-7 to cost $2 trillion…If GPT-5 fails, or is only an incremental improvement, nobody will want to spend $75 billion making GPT-6, and all of this will be moot.” https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/sam-altman-wants-7-trillion
How Tech Giants Turned Ukraine Into an AI War Lab https://time.com/6691662/ai-ukraine-war-palantir/ [https://archive.is/RpVJ6]
Drone Warfare’s Terrifying AI-Enabled Next Step Is Imminent https://www.twz.com/news-features/drone-warfares-terrifying-ai-enabled-next-step-is-imminent
ASML Shows Off $380 Million, 165-Ton Machine Behind AI Shift: "AI will need “massive amounts of computing power and data storage. I think without ASML, without our technology, that’s not going to happen,” the Dutch company’s Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink said in an interview with Bloomberg last month." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/asml-shows-off-380-million-165-ton-machine-behind-ai-shift [https://archive.is/2EKCW]
Nvidia presents Audio Flamingo: A Novel Audio Language Model with Few-Shot Learning and Dialogue Abilities https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.01831
DeepSeekMath: The 7B open LLM performs nearly on par with GPT-4 on MATH benchmark https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.03300
“Skeptical about LLM benchmarks telling the whole story? 🤔 Tiny tweaks to tests like MMLU can shuffle model rankings like a deck of cards.” https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.01781
Vision Superalignment: Weak-to-Strong Generalization for Vision Foundation Models https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.03749
Neural network training makes beautiful fractals: "Have you ever done a dense grid search over neural network hyperparameters? Like a *really dense* grid search? It looks like this (!!). Blueish colors correspond to hyperparameters for which training converges, redish colors to hyperparameters for which training diverges." https://sohl-dickstein.github.io/2024/02/12/fractal.html
Video of people realizing in real time just how easy it is to use AI to clone their voice. https://x.com/ai_ctrl/status/1757109466992988622
Miscellaneous:
Fervo Energy Drilling Results Show Rapid Advancement of Geothermal Performance https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-drilling-results-show-rapid-advancement-of-geothermal-performance/
Singularities could be everywhere -- And they might explain dark matter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbojv0_PklM
Prosthetic limb device enables users to ‘sense’ temperature difference https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/feb/09/prosthetic-limb-device-enables-users-to-sense-temperature-difference
Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Massive publication selection bias in economics? "After adjusting for publication selection bias, the median probability of the presence of an effect decreased from 99.9% to 29.7% in economics" https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38327122/
Ukraine:
If your mental model of the 2024 far right doesn't address their infatuation with Putin, you need to go back to the drawing board.(told in tweets) https://observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com/2024/02/if-your-mental-model-of-2024-far-right.html
Elon Musk says US should stop helping Ukraine defend itself against Russian invasion https://au.news.yahoo.com/elon-musk-says-us-stop-092247280.html
Romney: Now, I know that the shock jocks and online instigators have riled up many in the far reaches of my party. But if your position is being cheered by Vladimir Putin, it's time to reconsider your position. [Unlike all the NPCs who are either for or against "the current thing" depending on whether their party is aligned with it, Romney has been consistently warning about Russia for many years. Obama even mocked him for it during the 2012 presidential debate.] https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1757211257877274913
Thousands Of Networked Microphones Are Tracking Drones In Ukraine https://www.twz.com/land/thousands-of-networked-microphones-are-tracking-drones-in-ukraine
Russian industry "expects to increase 152mm production from around 1m rounds in 2023 to 1.3m over the course of 2024 [and] 800,000 122mm rounds...Russian MoD does not believe it can significantly raise production in subsequent years…Beyond 2026, attrition of systems will begin to materially degrade Russian combat power...making Russia's prospects decline over time. The latter would require Ukraine's partners to demonstrate a semblance of competence..." https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
SW of Avdiivka, 23.08.23. Intense combat scenes as the recce Company of the 59th Motorised Brigade (made up of Ukrainians + foreign volunteers) storm RuAF positions on height 105-106. They succeed, inflicting 22 KIA + 2 POWs on the RuAF, for the loss of 2 WIA + a HMMWV. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rp_p6Rb7pqk&rco=1