Links for 2024-02-01
AI:
“Why I take short timelines seriously” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fWtowFoZh68soDodB/why-i-take-short-timelines-seriously
Visibility into AI Agents — Practices that would enable us to identify them, monitor them, and and trace their actions, to ensure accountability. https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.13138
Autonomous Multi-Modal Mobile Device Agent with Visual Perception https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.16158
MultiModal Large Language Models have undergone substantial advancements, augmenting off-the-shelf LLMs to support MM inputs or outputs. The models preserve the reasoning and decision-making capabilities of LLMs but also empower a diverse range of MM tasks. https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.13601
Twin Labs automates repetitive tasks by letting AI take over your mouse cursor https://techcrunch.com/2024/01/31/twin-labs-automates-repetitive-tasks-by-letting-ai-take-over-your-mouse-cursor/
Miscellaneous:
“Settling Mars will involve compressing all our technical and industrial capabilities into their most compact forms — a life starter pack for a planet millions of miles away. For 2024’s first piece, I wrote an overview of what it would take to do that.” https://www.contrary.com/foundations-and-frontiers/mars-colonization
Effect sizes reported in the biomedical literature are getting smaller and smaller https://academic.oup.com/gigascience/article/7/1/gix121/4705900
“The mathematics of harmony is full of small glitches. There's no way to eliminate them. There are even meta-glitches, arising when two glitches are almost the same size... but not quite. And it doesn't stop there. Around 1775, Bach's student Kirnberger discovered an amazingly small meta-meta-glitch in the mathematics of harmony. It's now called 'Kirnberger's atom'.” https://johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2024/01/25/well-temperaments-part-3/
Ukraine:
“Russians channels shocked by annihilation of a russian advancing column in Novomikhaylivka on 30 January. Huge channels are sharing footage where in just 3 hours, 3 tanks, 7 MT-LBs and 1 BMP were destroyed.” https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752818201476362313
“A feature of Russia's Avdiivka offensives is several places where there were multiple AFV pile-ups at choke points or due to minefields…RuAF dead litter the area some being bagged. Recent pics from Russian sources.” https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1752740674405847246
Putin gets applause for saying Russia managed to capture 19 houses 4 months after they started an offensive in Avdiivka https://twitter.com/exexpat19/status/1752786096663282010
According to Russian sources, at least 3,500 Russian officers have been eliminated in Ukraine since 24. February 2022. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1InyFVmu1LoSjqcWTHe4iD9cR8CNiL-5Ke5Jiz_Mlvwc/
“Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed a hit on Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea.” https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1752740917767803159
Defense Minister Umerov alerted EU allies about a severe shortage of artillery shells, emphasizing a huge numerical disadvantage against Russia, which deploys 3 times more firepower. Umerov said Ukraine can only fire 2000 shells a day along a 1500km front. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/ukraine-tells-allies-troops-are-outgunned-three-to-one-by-russia
A useful report that explores the differences between how Russian armed forces fared in wargames before February 2022, and their real-world performance in Ukraine. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2031-1.html
“For decades Europe tried playing nice by buying Russian energy and welcoming its dark money, but invasions came anyway. There is no non-military solution to Russia. If Ukraine falls, Moldova and the Baltic States will be next and then comes Poland…If Ukraine had collapsed in 2022, the situation of the West would have been dire. China would have looked at a country the size Texas falling to Russia. Why not go for Taiwan? Other countries looking on, with their many and varied territorial grievances, might think, why not go for it?” https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/interview-sarah-c-paine
Code Red: How Russia Conquers the Baltics https://cepa.org/article/code-red-how-russia-conquers-the-baltics/