AI:
Mark Zuckerberg’s new goal is creating artificial general intelligence: Meta will have a stockpile of almost 600,000 GPUs by the end of 2024 https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-meta-agi-reorg-interview
Microsoft released a new method to speed up LLM inference, boost performance, while making them 20x smaller. https://github.com/microsoft/LLMLingua
The Perceptron Controversy: Connectionism died in the 60s from technical limits to scaling, then resurrected in the 80s after backprop allowed scaling. The Minsky–Papert anti-scaling hypothesis explained, psychoanalyzed, and buried. https://yuxi-liu-wired.github.io/blog/posts/perceptron-controversy/
"I remember the good old days, where people got excited about a paper that did like, 5 tasks, and showed you could speed up a 6th task. Now it is all large internet-scale models that zero-shot a wide class of tasks" https://www.alexirpan.com/2024/01/10/ai-timelines-2024.html
Four visions of Transformative AI success https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3aicJ8w4N9YDKBJbi/four-visions-of-transformative-ai-success
Science:
Liquid-metal-based three-dimensional microelectrode arrays integrated with implantable ultrathin retinal prosthesis for vision restoration https://nature.com/articles/s41565-023-01587-w
Data from the MeerKAT radio telescope reveal an object at the boundary between a black hole and a neutron star https://www.mpg.de/21385526/0115-radi-lightest-black-hole-or-heaviest-neutron-star-150300-x
A great thread covering nearly every type of nuclear reactor https://twitter.com/Jordan_W_Taylor/status/1745848069990596690
“Nuclear is the best energy there is today: • Best safety • Best for the environment • Most reliable • Most sustainable • Politically ideal • Can be best economically This thread will explain why, with details” https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1745782318969639357
A Runaway Greenhouse Effect is Very Unlikely on Earth https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2024/01/a-runaway-greenhouse-effect-is-very.html
Politics:
US Oil Is Booming and It’s Upending Global Markets https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/us-oil-production-hits-record-highs-what-it-means-for-opec
"There were good reasons why the Germans became pacifists. But the times have changed so radically that it would be criminal if we didn't adapt to them," says former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer. A "massive rearmament" is therefore "a must". https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article249598926/Joschka-Fischer-Massive-Aufruestung-noetig-weil-Putin-unberechenbar-ist.html
"International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors figure Iran now has sufficient quantities of highly-enriched uranium to build several atomic warheads, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told Bloomberg News" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/iran-frustrates-nuclear-monitors-as-its-uranium-stockpile-grows [https://archive.is/6gBXv]
Ukraine:
Russian failed assault around Invanivske (Bakhmut) https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1748005411943235997
The 110th mechanized brigade defending Avdiivka against Russian infantry assault groups. Russians have renewed their assaults after a brief 'pause'. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1748047367259980274
Destruction of Russian infantry in Krynky and its surroundings on the left bank by Ukrainian Marines. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1748012073286521332
France will start supplying Ukraine with Armement Air-Sol Modulaire (AASM) aerial bombs. According to French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu the monthly output throughout 2024 will 50 missiles, starting in January. https://ukranews.com/en/amp/news/978814-afu-will-receive-50-aasm-precision-bombs-from-france-every-month
Russia’s government has tapped almost half of the national wealth fund’s available reserves to shield the economy against the fallout from the war in Ukraine, leaving it vulnerable to future shocks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/war-in-ukraine-drains-nearly-half-of-accessible-russian-reserves [https://archive.is/BkKe1]
It doesn't help to deny this: Russia has better allies. For them, there is no question that Russia must be supplied with long-range missiles and that it is allowed to use them outside its territory.
If the West loses, it will be because of this absurd idea that restraining its own power is somehow virtuous or strategically wise. On the contrary, this weakness will lead to World War III.
If history is any guide, the Ukrainians are going to get long range missiles, without geographical restrictions, in only small quantities. This raises the issue of what to attack, an optimization problem.
- ~50 missiles (optimistically)
- Capable of hitting most of Western Russia
- >70% success chance - vastly increased target set means Russia cannot defend everything
What target or combination of targets would give maximum benefit