Links for 2023-08-09
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says his timelines to "generally well educated human" are 2-3 years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nlkk3glap_U
“We present AgentBench, a multi-dimensional evolving benchmark that currently consists of 8 distinct environments to assess LLM-as-Agent's reasoning and decision-making abilities in a multi-turn open-ended generation setting.” https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.03688
Autochain is a lightweight, simpler alternative to Langchain. It allows developers to build complex applications on top of large language models and databases. https://github.com/Forethought-Technologies/AutoChain
gpt-prompt-engineer is a tool that reads a description of the task you want an AI to perform, plus a number of test cases. It then generates a large number of prompts about a topic, tests the prompts, and rates the results. https://github.com/mshumer/gpt-prompt-engineer
Untangling Infrabayesianism: A redistillation [PDF link; ~12k words + lots of math] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xne4Bma99bKXWc9AH/untangling-infrabayesianism-a-redistillation-pdf-link-12k
Desirable properties for a superconductor http://nanoscale.blogspot.com/2023/08/desirable-properties-for-superconductor.html
“With a great deal of sadness, we now believe that the game is over. LK99 is NOT a superconductor, not even at room temperatures (or at very low temperatures). It is a very highly resistive poor quality material. Period. No point in fighting with the truth. Data have spoken.” https://twitter.com/condensed_the/status/1688747910471561216
“I expected that interest in LK-99 would just die a slow death after no one could replicate it; rarely is a smoking gun found that explains the spurious observations. But in this case it seems we have a full coroner's report!” https://twitter.com/MichaelSFuhrer/status/1689098570920759296
LK-99 superconductor: Real money prediction markets fall to 13%... https://twitter.com/base_rate_times/status/1688987353866702848
The Collapse of Broken-Windows Policing in New York City, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC, 2013–22 https://www.aei.org/research-products/working-paper/the-collapse-of-broken-windows-policing-in-new-york-city-los-angeles-and-washington-dc-2013-22/
"It is striking that asians with parents who did not complete high school score 100 points above blacks with PhD parents." https://humanvarieties.org/2023/08/06/a-remarkable-correlation-between-iq-and-sat-scores-across-ethnic-groups/
“Critics of the Supreme Court call its decisions "right wing" and "extreme." But read them yourselves and I'll bet you'll conclude, as I did, that they are more informed by small-l liberalism and that the vast majority are solidly in line with public opinion.” https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/defense-supreme-court/674874/ [https://archive.is/YKv6Q]
"I can hear legions of consequentialists desperately rationalizing 'the fact' that family punishment always fails a cost-benefit test. My one-word reply: 'Seriously?!'" https://betonit.substack.com/p/why-not-punish-families
How Taiwan plans to counter drones by mid-2024 https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2023/08/01/how-taiwan-plans-to-counter-drones-by-mid-2024/
Ukraine links:
An intense video of the 3rd separate assault brigade including subtitles during a troop landing near Klishchiivka. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDOSjUWYnDY (see also: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1689209907491323905)
"When Ukraine first requested Western tanks, satellite images show Russia had only started to build fortifications. By time Ukraine finally received tanks, hundreds of miles of fortifications were visible." https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1689004579441217542
One of Russia’s main military optics manufacturers, the Zagorski plant near Moscow, was rocked by a huge explosion. The plant makes optics for missiles and aircraft, as well as night-vision goggles and scopes. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1689185545786679296
See also: An Expert Explains Why The Radioactive Water Stored at Fukushima Should Be Released https://www.sciencealert.com/an-expert-explains-why-the-radioactive-water-stored-at-fukushima-should-be-released