Links for 2023-02-12
Bill Gates: “If you show me [neural net that passes AP bio], then I will say that it has the ability to represent things in a deeply abstract form, that’s more than just statistical things” https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/02/03/bill-gates-openai-microsoft-ai-hottest-topic-2023/
Can teachers spot a ChatGPT essay? https://blog.nomoremarking.com/can-teachers-spot-a-chatgpt-essay-de56ef3a787
ChatGPT frenzy sweeps China as firms scramble for home-grown options https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-frenzy-sweeps-china-firms-scramble-home-grown-options-2023-02-10/
Reverse Engineering a Neural Network's Clever Solution to Binary Addition https://cprimozic.net/blog/reverse-engineering-a-small-neural-network/
Got It AI creates truth checker for ChatGPT ‘hallucinations’ https://venturebeat.com/ai/got-it-ai-creates-truth-checker-for-chatgpt-hallucinations/
Anti-ageing scientists extend lifespan of oldest living lab rat https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/feb/08/anti-ageing-scientists-extend-lifespan-of-oldest-living-lab-rat
Even chess experts perform worse when air quality is lower, suggesting a negative effect on cognition. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/02/230201134204.htm
Large-scale Volcanism and the Heat Death of Terrestrial Worlds https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/PSJ/ac6033
"Study identified the genetic ancestry (European or African) of a skeleton with up to 92% accuracy using a variety of machine learning classification models." https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1556-4029.14231
“Human orbital volume (size of the eye socket) and eyeball size varies by latitude. Larger eyes in high-latitude populations. This is an adaptation to lower light levels. Just like nocturnal animals have big eyes. Another instance of recent human evolution!” (via @whyvert) https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsbl.2011.0570
Amazon drone delivery thwarted by insane regulations https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/2/23582294/amazon-prime-air-drone-delivery
“The West Coast has many more Spanish names (like California, Oregon, SF, or LA) than the East Coast. Why? Because of China and the rotation of the Earth” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1621591788082307080.html
Some predictions from Erich Vad, a former German general and adviser to Angela Merkel, who appears regularly in the German media:
February 24, 2022:
I think Putin will win this war because the Russian armed forces are modern, well-equipped. (...) The Ukrainian armed forces have outdated equipment and are in an incredibly bad position. (...) Giving military aid now is no longer of any use in the current conflict. (...) From a military point of view, the matter is over. And my assessment is that it will only be a matter of a few days and no more.
February 25, 2022:
The military-strategic starting point of the entire conflict was not such that Ukraine could be defended with the forces that Ukraine has – far inferior in numbers to the Russians, and far inferior in terms of weapon systems. The Russians have supremacy in the air, they are pushing from all directions.
March 1, 2022:
The Russians are currently attacking Odessa from Crimea. I think the city will be taken soon too.
March 7, 2022:
[The Russian convoy] is not stuck. You can see that the Russians feel very safe. There is no Ukrainian air force, and Ukrainians have no means of eliminating this ridiculous-looking target. They [the Russians] are taking their time. And I think these columns also have the forces they need to fight for Kyiv.
March 25, 2022:
To be honest, I don't see this Ukrainian offensive. A few smaller gains in territory near Kyiv are not yet a counter-offensive.
April 3, 2022:
The Russians have the reins of action in their hands, even if it is portrayed differently in the western media. But that's just not the case.
May 27, 2022:
I expect that [Russia] will take the rest of the strategically important Black Sea coast, including Odesa, and create a connection to Transnistria.
June 8, 2022:
Well, I really have a problem with the heavy weapons (...) they are very training intensive. The Gepard, the anti-aircraft tank, is also a highly complex weapon system. (...) And then, of course, the topic of relocation. How is that supposed to work? Railway transport, a thousand kilometers from western Ukraine to eastern Ukraine?
August 31, 2022:
I tend to assume that [the Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson area] will be limited advances. It is said that some towns were recaptured by the Ukrainians. But of course, that is little compared to this large bridgehead that the Russians have formed west of the Dnieper around Kherson. A major counter-offensive would mean crushing that bridgehead and fighting to free Kherson.
November 24, 2022:
In the weeks and months [after the start of the war] we consistently underestimated the Russians...
Incarceration rates and SAT by parental income, by race: