“Abandoned brain implants. A nightmare scenario for patients, and an important issue for #neurotech leaders to plan for to ensure patients are protected.” https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-022-03810-5/index.html
Playlist of data structure and algorithms videos https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL9t0xVFP90GBPScODccB2_PpouUUZ4j8C
The rise and fall of peer review: Why the greatest scientific experiment in history failed, and why that's a great thing https://experimentalhistory.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-peer-review
A study of 11 million individuals in Canada found that the unvaccinated were 72% more likely to get into a serious car accident. https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext#%20
Bryan Caplan: Promoting nuclear power >> Researching alternative energy https://betonit.substack.com/p/sell-the-magic
The Media Very Rarely Lies https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-media-very-rarely-lies
Wokeness has captured the American scientific establishment: universities, societies, journals, publishers, and funding agencies https://www.nas.org/reports/ideological-intensification/full-report
The Rhetoric and Reality of Police Shootings and the Black Lives Matter Movement https://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/The-Rhetoric-and-Reality-of-Police-Shootings-and-the-Black-Lives-Matter-Movement.pdf
Ideology and Intolerance: The Case of Colonialism — “This article examines the academic response to Gilley, the literature on colonialism other than Gilley’s. I find that most of it supports Gilley’s viewpoint in terms of the objective benefits received by nations colonized by the British in terms of economic, health, civil rights, and democratic advances.” [PDF] https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1051&context=ji
Suppose it could be shown that giving pedophiles access to fake child porn (e.g. generated by a deep learning text-to-image model) would significantly reduce the risk of them harming real children. Should it be legal? Or suppose it would allow law enforcement to catch predators. Should they be allowed to use it? https://www.ideassleepfuriously.com/p/essay-competition-winner-fake-child
“That portion of my brain that grew up on Total War and Civilization games thinks the concept of a small number of hyper-technologically sophisticated foreigners led by a verified psychopath waging war on an empire of pyramid-dwelling, polygamist, slave-owning, human sacrificing pagans with the fate of a largely uncharted landmass at stake is incredibly cool.” https://mattlakeman.org/2020/06/25/polygamy-human-sacrifices-and-steel-why-the-aztecs-were-awesome/
"ruins of a vast ancient Maya civilization that flourished more than 2,000 years ago in northern Guatemala, …encompassed nearly 1,000 settlements across 650 square miles, linked by an immense causeway system, which was mapped out with … LiDAR." https://www.vice.com/en/article/3admdv/archaeologists-discover-huge-lost-civilization-in-guatemala
“Japan has embarked on a historic military build-up…Kishida has said Japan will set aside ¥43tn ($317bn) for its defence budget over the next five years, a 57 per cent increase from the current spending plan.” [Financial Times] https://archive.vn/ZdsKW
Give the year by which each of the following statements will have a 10%/50%/90% of being true:
A. AI is able to watch an unreleased movie without access to any spoilers and generate a review that meets the standards of at least 7 out of 10 professional film critics.
B. AI is able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines for a programming project based on a natural language description.
C. AI is able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification.
D. AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad.
E. Universal real-time voice and text translation becomes useful enough for most people to live and work in countries without any knowledge of the native language.
F. Old people can have long and satisfying conversations with virtual assistants like Alexa, alleviating loneliness.
G. AI can serve as a tutor for primary school children, yielding results comparable to public school teachers based on an assessment by standardized testing.
H. Level 5 autonomous driving for the majority of people living in the majority of Western and East Asian countries.
I. The first fully automated McDonalds opens.
J. AI is able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen.
K. Sex robots become advanced enough to have a significant impact on dating and birth rates.
L. There exists a commercially successful noninvasive brain-computer interface for healthy people.
M. A mouse is confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days.
N. Permanent moon base.
O. More than 10 people are on Mars at any given moment.
P. First commercially viable fusion power plant.
Q. First baby born that was designed or selected to be more intelligent.
R. Augmented reality hardware replaces more than 20% of smartphone use worldwide.
S. Synthetic meat has a market share of at least 10%.
> A study of 11 million individuals in Canada found that the unvaccinated were 72% more likely to get into a serious car accident.
assuming the stats aren't rigged, yet more evidence of healthy user bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthy_user_bias
1:1.72 = 0.58:1
You should create prediction markets for questions on Manifold (https://manifold.markets/).