Links for 2022-10-22
"In a US government lab in Bethesda, Maryland, virologists plan to equip the strain of the monkeypox virus that spread globally this year, causing mostly rash and flulike symptoms, with genes from..second monkeypox strain that causes more serious illness." https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-weighs-crackdown-experiments-could-make-viruses-more-dangerous
The National Institutes of Health now blocks access to an important database if it thinks a scientist’s research may enter “forbidden” territory. — “a policy of deliberate ignorance has corrupted top scientific institutions... prestigious journals will often reject submissions that involve... controversial aspects of human biology and behavior.” https://www.city-journal.org/nih-blocks-access-to-genetics-database
A new AI model can accurately predict human response to novel drug compounds https://phys.org/news/2022-10-ai-accurately-human-response-drug.html
“Over the last few years in particular there's been a proliferation of rigorous theoretical and empirical research on reasons to be concerned about existential risk from AI. In this thread I list some of the papers published in top ML venues which explore key ideas…” https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1579948545733718016.html
Niceness is unnatural [don’t expect aliens or AIs to be nice because niceness depends on quirks in the human architecture and ancestral environment and probably isn’t stable under self-improvement] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krHDNc7cDvfEL8z9a/niceness-is-unnatural
“We need permitting reform for geothermal power” https://www.slowboring.com/p/we-need-permitting-reform-for-geothermal
Unblocking Abundance: Breaking through regulatory barriers is an essential pillar of an “abundance agenda.” https://sarahconstantin.substack.com/p/unblocking-abundance
“No friction, no limits: magnetic bearings not only increase service life, they also enable oil-free operation in a vacuum at maximum speeds. Our technology allows you to reach 500,000 rpm and more.” https://www.celeroton.com/en/technology/magnetic-bearing/
“A group of programmers has designed an application for Android, called "ePPO" (an acronym meaning ‘it's the anti-aircraft defense’), allowing the population, since mid-October, to inform the army in real time of the passage of Shahed 136 in the sky. Simply point your phone in the direction of the noise and click a button to transmit the coordinates of the danger. ePPO, which already has more than 100,000 downloads, can also report planes, helicopters, missiles and explosions.” https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/10/21/l-ukraine-lance-une-application-android-pour-traquer-et-detruire-les-drones-kamikazes_6146771_3210.html
British police have raided what they’re calling a “makeshift 3D firearm factory”. It was discovered in NW London. Amongst the firearms are parts for two half made FGC-9s. https://news.met.police.uk/news/met-seize-large-number-of-3d-printed-firearm-components-455381
Why is China doubling down on its highly damaging zero-COVID strategy? One of the more probable answers is that they are doing it for the same reason that Germany is shutting down its nuclear power plants, George W Bush attacked Iraq and Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine: they are simply irrational.
But this is no fun to think about at all. So let's forget about both Occam's and Hanlon's razor and instead take a look at some more interesting hypotheses:
1. China's ability to continually suppress the virus is strong evidence that they could decisively win a war fought with bioweapons. Their zero-COVID strategy could therefore be a costly but potent signal that they are able and willing to win a war against the United States by means of biological warfare.
You might argue that the United States could just nuke them in response. But a bioweapon could be employed with enough plausible deniability that it would be very difficult for the United States to justify a nuclear first strike.
2. We know that certain viruses such as the Epstein–Barr virus or the Zika virus can have long-term consequences. If SARS-CoV-2 was indeed designed in a Chinese bio lab, they might know something that nobody else knows. Maybe COVID-19 causes a subtle form of brain damage that will eventually lead to a significant drop in intelligence. The economic consequences could be much worse than China's zero-COVID strategy.
Russian TV: No more "special military operation", now it's war with NATO.
This is actually good news! It allows Russia to lose the war without losing face. And Putin can tell the Russian people that he could have used nukes but decided to save the world because Russia isn't as reckless as the West.