Links for 2022-10-08
~75% chance of AGI by 2032. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nMpdmt8LrzxQnkGp/ai-timelines-via-cumulative-optimization-power-less-long
Phase transitions and AGI https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10286/phase-transitions-and-agi/
Will transformative AI come with a bang? https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10508/will-transformative-ai-come-with-a-bang/
The unanticipated deep learning A.I. dividends for medicine: “Today’s report on AI of retinal vessel images to help predict the risk of heart attack and stroke, from over 65,000 UK Biobank participants, reinforces a growing body of evidence that deep neural networks can be trained to “interpret” medical images far beyond what was anticipated. Add that finding to last week’s multinational study of deep learning of retinal photos to detect Alzheimer’s disease with good accuracy.” https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-amazing-power-of-machine-eyes
A new model for analyzing chest x-ray images learns from natural language medical reports written when the image was taken, rather than images labeled after the fact. Its accuracy is roughly equivalent to human radiologists. [MIT Technology Review] https://archive.ph/wppcV
Neuromorphic computing, which is based on specialized chips that emulate human neurons, is better at identifying objects than traditional neural networks, and uses much less power. https://thenextweb.com/news/intel-unveils-neuromorphic-approach-to-interactive-continual-learning-robots
“With the Nobel Prize in physics yesterday going to experiments testing quantum foundations, what could be next for this kind of experimental metaphysics? In this post, I propose: we should run Wigner's Friend experiments.” https://www.wignersfriends.com/
Sharon Hewitt Rawlette on why pleasure and pain are the only things that intrinsically matter https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/sharon-hewitt-rawlette-hedonistic-utilitarianism/
Adversarial Collaboration: Lecture by Daniel Kahneman https://www.edge.org/adversarial-collaboration-daniel-kahneman
This Spinning Camera On China’s Aircraft Carrier Is A Key Defense System https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/this-spinning-camera-on-chinas-aircraft-carrier-is-a-key-defense-system
Co-Writing Screenplays and Theatre Scripts with Language Models: An Evaluation by Industry Professionals https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.14958
Key bridge linking Crimea to Russia hit by huge explosion https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/08/crimea-kerch-bridge-explosions-russia-ukraine
The state of Michigan required HS seniors to take the SAT last year (91k out of 107k total). Result: an unusually representative score sample.
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/10/sat-score-distributions-in-michigan.html
Provides further evidence that PRC could be producing 10x more top STEM talent than US -- compare PISA test.