Links for 2022-08-12
“…random fluctuations will occaisionally create atoms, molecules... and even solar systems and galaxies! The bigger the fluctuation, the more rarely it happens - but eternity is a long time. So eventually there will arise, sheerly by chance, a person just like you, with memories just like yours, reading a webpage just like this.” https://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/end.html
Ordinary computers can beat Google’s quantum computer after all [science.org] https://archive.ph/IWXgK
“…we find that female teams lower their contribution to the public good in the event of low likeability, while male teams achieve high levels of co-operation irrespective of the level of mutual likeability.” https://academic.oup.com/ej/article-abstract/130/627/716/5715606
A country's % European ancestry predicts (a) its income and (b) how good its political institutions are (including democracy). https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/european-origins-economic-development
Transformer language models are doing something more general https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YwqSijHybF9GFkDab/transformer-language-models-are-doing-something-more-general
Discovered in the deep: the snail with iron armour https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/03/discovered-in-the-deep-the-snail-with-iron-armour
"This startup wants to copy you into an embryo for organ harvesting: With plans to create realistic synthetic embryos, grown in jars, Renewal Bio is on a journey to the horizon of science and ethics" [Technology Review] https://archive.ph/BVtXU
Automated machine learning promises to speed up the process of developing AI models and make the technology more accessible. [Technology Review] https://archive.ph/UGi61
A Brief History of Russian and Soviet Genocides, Mass Deportations, and Other Atrocities in Ukraine https://realcontextnews.com/a-brief-history-of-russian-and-soviet-genocides-mass-deportations-and-other-atrocities-in-ukraine/
The Academic Literature and its Increasing Emphasis on Prejudice and Social Justice https://davidrozado.substack.com/p/tialpasj
Some random life hacks that work(ed) very well for me but might not work at all for someone else:
1. Mental overload: In order to decrease cognitive load immediately write thoughts down and use your smartphone's speech assistant to remind you of chores.
2. Problem-solving: When you get stuck solving a problem or task, force yourself to engage in distraction or sleep on it.
3. Constipation: Drink several glasses of water immediately after a meal.
4. Other digestive problems: Eat mostly the same things at the same time of the day.
5. Bad skin (e.g. acne): Take zinc supplementation and *frequently* wash your face (especially after sweating).
6. Extrasystoles: Potassium and magnesium supplementation can fix this quickly.
7. Hight blood pressure: Do strength training (e.g. lifting weights) rather than cardio (e.g. running).
8. Feeling tired: If you feel tired and your alertness is dwindling but you don't have enough time for a nap, do some squads or push-ups (which works better than caffeine).
9. Addiction: Use a countdown timer for addictive things like social media in order to limit, record, and manage your usage.
10. Sleep: To fall asleep more quickly concentrate on whole body muscle relaxation.
This forecast timeline is pretty representative of my own expectations: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/
Initially, I was rather skeptical that an invasion would happen given previous Western intelligence failures. When it happened I initially believed that they would steamroll Ukraine. As a devastating loss for the Russian forces loomed during the Kyiv offensive I massively downscaled my expectations. Since then the probability of a Russian success seems to be slowly but continually decreasing.