Links for 2022-04-12
Metaculus Community Prediction When First AGI is Publicly Known: Oct 10, 2035 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/
Using a sibling-pair-matched design, researchers using 100% of the population of Sweden and Finland find that ***60%*** of below-replacement fertility is explained simply by the prevalence of mental illness. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.25.22272822v1.full
"Many women in the world’s richer countries appear to seek Mr. Perfect, while their male counterparts are more willing to accept Ms. Goodenough." https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-91611-4_12
"About 20% of our caloric intake feeds our brain when we’re resting even though it’s only 2% of our body weight. It’s a calorically expensive organ." https://razib.substack.com/p/applying-iq-to-iq
Sodium-ion batteries could be the cheaper alternative to lithium batteries but they suffer from severe performance degradation after a few cycles due to a 'structural earthquake' in the cathode material. New X-ray imaging techniques will help solve that https://web.archive.org/web/20220325112536/https://anl.gov/article/pivotal-battery-discovery-could-impact-transportation-and-the-grid
Amazon, Alphabet and Others Are Quietly Rolling Out Drone Delivery Across America [Wall Street Journal] https://archive.ph/Kwz0Z
Scientists Used Cellular Rejuvenation Therapy to Rewind Aging in Mice https://singularityhub.com/2022/04/06/scientists-used-cellular-rejuvenation-therapy-to-rewind-aging-in-mice/
In Sri Lanka, organic farming went catastrophically wrong: "Sri Lanka, long self-sufficient in rice production, has been forced to import $450 million worth of rice even as domestic prices for this staple of the national diet surged by around 50%." https://tbsnews.net/thoughts/sri-lanka-organic-farming-went-catastrophically-wrong-381010
Amazon to Spend Billions on Space Launches as SpaceX Ramps Up Satellite-Internet Service [Wall Street Journal] https://archive.ph/HMvS7
Greenland Sharks Say “Who Needs Food?” — “500-pound (227 kg) individual would need between 2 - 6.5 ounces of fish or marine animal prey [daily] to live.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/melissacristinamarquez/2022/04/05/greenland-sharks-say-who-needs-food/?sh=cf7fe8557bcc
Can humans perform mental regression on a graph? Accuracy and bias in the perception of scatterplots https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S001002852100030X
Scott Aaronson: Quantum Computing, Unsolvable Problems, & Artificial Intelligence https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/04/scott-aaronson-quantum-computing.html
How long before we can create videos from text?
If Marine Le Pen wins Germany might double down on military spending again.
The argument here has been that we don't really need a strong military because who would attack us? After all, we are surrounded by friends! The Russian invasion of Ukraine has mostly rid people of this nonsense.
But there is no country Germans trust more than France. It's widely seen as a friend and ally. If they suddenly elect someone Germans have been taught to hate and fear, this might destroy the last remnants of the German postwar foreign and defense policy.
This could finally usher in the birth of a new Germany.
If you still believe that the idea that each generation must necessarily be more liberal than the last then check this:
It's similar in Poland where two-thirds of young voters choose right-wing parties and are turning even more towards conservative values: https://dw.com/en/polands-young-voters-turning-to-the-right/a-47439606
In two of three recent local elections in East German states, the far-right AfD was the strongest party with the youngest voters.
Support for Adolf Hitler was greater among university students than among the public. Several universities had anti-Semitic riots. Students wanted to free up space at the universities for themselves: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/18332882-the-12-year-reich