Links for 2022-03-17
“From logical reasoning to mental simulation, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) possess an incredible capacity for computation. To fully harness this capacity, we developed a programming language for RNNs.” https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.05032
Will Transformers Take Over Artificial Intelligence? “Just 10 years ago, disparate subfields of AI had little to say to each other. But the arrival of transformers suggests the possibility of a convergence. ‘I think the transformer is so popular because it implies the potential to become universal,’ said the computer scientist Atlas Wang of the University of Texas, Austin. ‘We have good reason to want to try transformers for the entire spectrum’ of AI tasks.” https://www.quantamagazine.org/will-transformers-take-over-artificial-intelligence-20220310/
Successfully replicated psychology study: "Therapeutic experience seems to be unrelated to patients’ change in psychopathology." https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2022-41007-001
“The Dodo bird verdict (or Dodo bird conjecture) is a controversial topic in psychotherapy, referring to the claim that all empirically validated psychotherapies, regardless of their specific components, produce equivalent outcomes.” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodo_bird_verdict
“Researchers have found ants are as accurate as dogs in sniffing out cancer but they can be trained in as little as 30 minutes.” https://newatlas.com/science/cancer-sniffing-ants-accurate-as-dogs/
One thing that seems crazy is not making sure the US has high end microchip manufacturing, that is at least within range of TSMC in Taiwan. At the moment it's years and chip node generations behind. Ben Thompson writes about this here. https://stratechery.com/2022/an-interview-with-intel-ceo-pat-gelsinger/
South Korean fertility seems to be eugenic: “For instance, the husband’s higher education and better employment status (e.g., college education, standard employment) are positively associated with having a first and second childbirth. Also, those who can secure enough money to purchase a house or to deposit a lump-sum for a Jeonse lease have a higher likelihood of having first and second births than those who rent by the month (Weolse).” https://demographic-research.org/volumes/vol44/39/44-39.pdf
“South Korea is likely to make a U-turn from its yearslong nuclear phase-out drive as President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has vowed to scrap the policy and make the country a powerhouse in nuclear power generation.” http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220310000371
War links:
A former CIA official said Russia's ability to locate and target Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas based on their cellphones was "almost like SkyNet in a ‘Terminator’ movie." https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-secret-cia-training-program-in-ukraine-helped-kyiv-prepare-for-russian-invasion-090052743.html
“If the war comes was a short publication and contained the basic information that the Government of Sweden considered as necessary to know in the event of war. The most notable and well remembered exhortation is the phrase in the chapter about civil defense; Every statement that the resistance has ceased is FALSE!” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If_the_war_comes
"American intelligence officials have discovered that the barrage of ballistic missiles Russia has fired into Ukraine contain a surprise: decoys that trick air-defense radars and fool heat-seeking missiles." https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/14/us/russia-ukraine-weapons-decoy.html
Ukraine and the Pro-Putin Right — “…some national conservatives seem to hate contemporary America so much that they instinctively wish its enemies well.” https://quillette.com/2022/03/12/ukraine-and-the-pro-putin-right/
Ukraine Strikes Back: Barrage Leaves Russian-Occupied Kherson Airbase In Flames https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44780/ukraine-strikes-back-barrage-leaves-russian-occupied-kherson-airbase-in-flames
“The Biden administration is considering providing Ukraine with U.S.-made killer drones — cutting-edge guided missiles that could accurately target Russian tanks and artillery positions from miles away” https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna20197 [see video below]
Nuclear power is costly and slow because of massive overregulation. Back in the 1970s, France began to build its current nuclear capacity within 15 years. They decarbonized their country in 15 years! Now imagine how fast we could build nuclear power plants if we had subsidized its research and development as much as we did with solar power. We could decarbonize the whole world in a decade.
The same is likely true with geothermal power. Given a sufficient impetus, it could rapidly become a lot cheaper than it is now. We just need to subsidize it and cease the regulations.
This highlights a general problem with people's perception. They ignore progress. Once upon a time, owning a mobile phone was a status symbol. It signaled that you are rich and important. That's a ridiculous suggestion today because technological progress made them so cheap that even very poor people can own such a device.
Unfortunately, even those who lived through the era in which mobile phones transformed from merely expensive phones into mass-produced supercomputers fail to apply this lesson to other technologies.
Try talking to people about longevity research or private space flight and many will dismiss these things, or even express their hate for them, by arguing that only the richest people will benefit from them. What they forget is that only a few decades ago nobody but the largest and most developed nation-states could access space. But today billionaires can fly into space with private rockets. And tomorrow it could be you! Yes, the first longevity therapies will be too expensive for anyone but the super-rich. That's going to change quickly.
Don't look at where we are.
Look at where we could be.
Look at where we will be given a few years of research.
Don't ignore technological progress.