Links for 2022-03-12
Summary of why expecting transformative AI this century seems very plausible: “You can run the bio anchors analysis in a lot of different ways, but they all point to transformative AI this century; As do the expert surveys, as does Metaculus; The most naive extrapolations of economic growth trends imply singularity (or at least “new growth mode”) this century;” https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/03/holden-karnofsky-emails-me-on-transformative-ai.html
“I project 70-years worth of trends in compute usage in Machine Learning forwards in time. If trends continue even briefly (relative to how long they've been around), models will be trained with incredible amounts of compute (~1e30 FLOPs by end of the decade).” https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/3dBtgKCkJh5yCHbag/projecting-compute-trends-in-machine-learning-2
Anti-Aging Breakthrough: Cellular Rejuvenation Therapy Safely Reverses the Aging Process in Mice https://www.sciencealert.com/making-cells-revert-to-a-younger-state-safely-reversed-signs-of-aging-in-mice
The Genocide the U.S. Can’t Remember, But Bangladesh Can’t Forget https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/genocide-us-cant-remember-bangladesh-cant-forget-180961490/
This swashbuckling $3 billion company is single-handedly trying to fix the supply-chain crisis https://www.fastcompany.com/90721911/flexport-fixing-supply-chain-crisis
“For centuries our world has been steadily more bureaucratic. Yet we are failing to imagine the future changes that trend implies. So here I briefly imagine what if we had more formal procedures and rules re public conversation.” https://overcomingbias.com/2022/03/unblinding-admin-futures.html
Senior Minister Janil Puthucheary describes quantum crypto in the Parliament of Singapore https://vimeo.com/685764777/8a4d5acfce
Lead Exposure in Last Century Shrunk IQ Scores of Half of Americans – 824 Million IQ Points Stolen https://scitechdaily.com/lead-exposure-in-last-century-shrunk-iq-scores-of-half-of-americans-824-million-iq-points-stolen/
Toward batteries that pack twice as much energy per pound. A method for stabilizing the interfaces in solid-state lithium-ion batteries opens new possibilities. https://news.mit.edu/2022/solid-state-batteries-interface-stability-0308
"Albert Stevens was a house painter who was subjected to an involuntary human radiation experiment and survived the highest known accumulated radiation dose in any human. On May 14, 1945, he was injected with plutonium without his knowledge or consent" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Stevens
'Children of Men' is really happening. Why Russia can’t afford to spare its young soldiers anymore. https://edwest.substack.com/p/children-of-men-is-really-happening?s=w
“Russia’s economic blackout could change the world, including the beginning of the end of clean energy complacency in the west and the North Koreafication of Russia” https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/russia-economic-sanctions-wheat-oil/627004/
Some quick notes about nuclear waste:
1. Pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has global effects whereas the effects of nuclear waste are local.
2. Every year, the lives of seven million people are cut short by waste products in the form of air pollution from burning biomass and fossil fuels. Very few people have ever been harmed by nuclear waste.
3. If all the nuclear waste from U.S. power plants were put on a football field, it would stack up just 50 feet high (~15 meters). In comparison to the waste produced by every other kind of electricity production, that quantity is close to zero.
4. Waste such as mercury and arsenic from coal power plants and solar panels is forever toxic since it does not decay. In contrast, nuclear waste automatically becomes less problematic with time.
5. Nuclear waste is not really waste. It is a precious material that can be reused as fuel for the next generation of nuclear plants. This means that there is no need for long-term storage solutions.
6. Shipping containers used to transport nuclear materials are *MUCH* safer than BSL-4 laboratories containing viruses that can cause pandemics.
7. If our distant descendants are unable to deal with nuclear waste then they will also be unable to deal with the large asteroids that are expected to hit Earth over the same period of time. In other words, nuclear waste will be the least of their worries.
8. Every 7 centimeters of water cuts the amount of radiation in half. You could dive a few meters from highly radioactive fuel rods for as long as you want and receive a lower dose of radiation than walking around on the street. In other words, we could safely dump nuclear waste into the oceans (which by the way naturally contain 4 billion tons of uranium).
"Comparison of the approximate change of the situation in Ukraine over the last week.
1300 UTC Friday 04/03 --> 1300 UTC Friday 11/03." [Source]