Links for 2022-02-28
Neurons might be able to predict their own future activity and learn to improve the accuracy of those predictions. https://blog.pnas.org/2022/02/predictions-could-help-neurons-and-the-brain-learn/
The algebra of neurons. Study deciphers how a single nerve cell can multiply. https://www.mpg.de/18314224/0221-psy-the-algebra-of-neurons-155111-x
"Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work", Scott Alexander (reviewing debate over Cotreya report, brain compute equivalents, forecasts, and roots of AI progress) https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might?utm_source=url
If we are in a simulation, does it follow our simulators are bad people? https://philosophybear.substack.com/p/the-problem-of-simulator-evil?utm_source=url
"time travel will not be possible in a full quantum theory of gravity" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10701-022-00542-4
Multimodal transformers perform well on vision and language tasks like visual question answering, but do they understand verbs? https://deepmind.com/research/publications/2021/Probing-Image-Language-Transformers-for-Verb-Understanding
"body masculinity (strength/muscularity) is only trait consistently correlated with both mating and reproductive outcomes across [high and low fertility] populations, and the effects of body masculinity on these outcomes were among the strongest in the analysis" https://elifesciences.org/articles/65031
"One in three young people say their mental health and wellbeing improved during COVID-19 lockdown measures, with potential contributing factors including feeling less lonely, avoiding bullying and getting more sleep and exercise." https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/one-in-three-young-people-say-they-felt-happier-during-lockdown
Super Technology of the 2020s: Narrow Super AI, Molecular Electronics, Atom Technology — “There are over 170 companies working aging damage reversal. First and second-generation versions of these treatments against each of the seven kinds of aging damage will be widely available and in use by 2030.” https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/02/super-technology-of-the-2020s-narrow-super-ai-molecular-electronics-atom-technology.html
A lot of water on Earth may be due to solar wind reacting with silicate particles in space https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-021-01487-w
Astonishing scenes not seen since world war 2 yesterday in the German parliament:
Chancellor [paraphrased]: The German armed forces will immediately receive 100 billion Euros and we will from now on be spending MORE than 2% of our GDP on defense. The goal is to create an efficient and modern military. We will defend every square meter of NATO territory.
*standing ovations*
Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has led to a historic turning point.
I wrote that above based on a live speech I watched but see here for one source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-raise-defense-spending-above-2-of-gdp-11645959425
Here is a reminder that, in the not too distant past, Democrats ridiculed Republicans for being cautious of Russia, and the mainstream media made sure to destroy the Republican candidate with absurd allegations and lies.
See also: Romney Was Right About Putin https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/02/romney-putin-ukraine-invasion/622941/
I'm not sure how much of an outlier this decade is so far. But I assign a 10% probability to a machine learning breakthrough before 2030 that will transform the whole socio-economic fabric of society before 2040 by at least as much as smartphones and social networks did together.