Links for 2022-02-27
Paul Christiano and Eliezer Yudkowsky make a public bet on the chance that AI achieves gold medal at International Math Olympiad by 2025: “So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls etc. of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer
Across cultures, people group stars in the night sky into many of the same constellations, suggesting the influence of deep-seated principles of perception common to human nature. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/09567976211044157
A research effort led by Stanford scientists set the first Guinness World Record for the fastest DNA sequencing technique, which was used to sequence a human genome in just 5 hours and 2 minutes. https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2022/01/dna-sequencing-technique.html
"The first draft of the human genome was completed at a cost...of about $3 billion. Just 22 years later...consumer can buy a kit from Nebula in the US or Dante...and send in their spit for a whole-genome sequence at a cost of between $100 $1,000" https://razib.substack.com/p/life-science-comes-at-you-fast-part
First Successful Implantation of Revolutionary Artificial Vision Brain Implant https://scitechdaily.com/first-successful-implantation-of-revolutionary-artificial-vision-brain-implant/
What happens to proxy wars once great powers develop fully autonomous weapons? https://nuclearspaceheater.tumblr.com/post/675934172967305216/the-long-standing-fact-that-countries-can-openly
Eternal inflation: when probabilities fail — “…the selection of the appropriate inductive logic is an empirical matter to be decided by the physical facts and
background conditions of an eternally inflating cosmology.” https://sites.pitt.edu/~jdnorton/papers/eternal_inflation_final.pdf
Preschool has negative effects on academic achievement and non-academic outcomes. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vfShplpa_dUXbPJNaKlFubli_OZDq5Jh/view
Gwern on the failures of 20th century eugenics. https://www.gwern.net/Dune-genetics#alternative-paradigms
Magpies have outwitted scientists by helping each other remove tracking devices https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-22/magpies-show-cooperative-behaviour-by-removing-tracking-device/100851458
No Evidence Against the Greater Male Variability Hypothesis: A Commentary on Harrison et al.’s Meta-Analysis of Animal Personality https://psyarxiv.com/6ua8r
"Global warming is real. It is also – so far – mostly beneficial. This startling fact is kept from the public by a determined effort on the part of alarmists and their media allies" https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/how-global-warming-can-be-good/
The two objects are traveling together in exactly the same manner: https://quote.ucsd.edu/anstislab/files/2012/11/2001-Footsteps-and-inchworms.pdf
Something almost nobody in Germany is aware of is that South Korea has received 170 bunker buster cruise missiles with stealth technology developed by Germany in cooperation with Sweden.
The Taurus KEPD 350 has a range in excess of 500 km (300 mi) and can penetrate hardened underground bunkers. It is capable of navigating over very long distances without GPS support. The missile also includes countermeasures as a self-defense mechanism and electronic countermeasures.
Video 1:
Video 2:
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KEPD_350
Israel's six Dolphin-class submarines have been developed and subsidized by Germany and are widely believed to feature cruise missiles equipped with 200 kiloton nuclear warheads providing Israel with an offshore nuclear second-strike capability.
Three more submarines will be delivered starting in 2027. Germany will provide industrial subsidies to German companies building and outfitting the submarines covering a third of purchase costs.
Read more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine
Something that seems to be widely ignored is article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/mutual_defence.html
Sweden and Finland might not be NATO members, but they are members of the European Union and therefore fall under article 42.7.
But note that no "formal procedure has been set out and the article does not say that the assistance should be military in nature, so countries such as Austria, Finland, Ireland and Sweden that have a policy of neutrality, can still cooperate.
I've seen many similar comments in the past few days. This has really made a lot of people wake up. Even Germans far to the left are starting to realize that diplomacy alone is not enough. This might be a turning point.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
The historic perspective:
"If you say why not bomb them tomorrow, I say why not today? If you say today at 5 o'clock, I say why not one o'clock?"
― John Von Neumann, advocating an immediate pre-emptive nuclear war against Russia
“There is one thing and one only which could save the world, and that is … that America should make war on Russia during the next two years, and establish a world empire by means of the atomic bomb.”
― Bertrand Russell
Source: https://www.americanheritage.com/prisoners-dilemma
The long march through the institutions. Christianity had more difficulty conquering the Roman Empire.