Links for 2022-01-29
The Miracle Sudoku https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKf9aUIxdb4&t=2s
Why use anchors? It's an example of reference class forecasting, which is a common tool employed by successful forecasters. The idea is to generate many possible reference classes and take a weighted average over them.
Anchors: https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/thought-experiments-provide-a-third-anchor/
Reference classes: https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/base-rates-and-reference-classes/List of Probability Calibration Exercises https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LdFbx9oqtKAAwtKF3/list-of-probability-calibration-exercises
For millennia, people slept in two shifts – once in the evening, and once in the morning. But why? And how did the habit disappear? https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220107-the-lost-medieval-habit-of-biphasic-sleep
Sex-typical behavior of mice guided by differences in brain’s gene activity https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2022/01/mice-gene-activation-brain-sex-differences.html
Disambiguating the ‘Observable Universe’ https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jQLFdobJ4ctEzbsXw/disambiguating-the-observable-universe
The Best Argument Against School Closures: "Virtually no one publicly stated the ugly-yet-obvious fact that great convenience for tens of millions of parents vastly outweighs a few extra Covid deaths." https://www.econlib.org/the-best-argument-against-school-closures/
DNA Mutations Are Not Random: New Research Radically Changes Our Understanding of Evolution: “We always thought of mutation as basically random across the genome,” said Grey Monroe, an assistant professor in the UC Davis Department of Plant Sciences who is lead author on the paper. “It turns out that mutation is very non-random and it’s non-random in a way that benefits the plant. It’s a totally new way of thinking about mutation.” https://scitechdaily.com/dna-mutations-are-not-random-new-research-radically-changes-our-understanding-of-evolution/
The Einstellung Effect: “When people find a problem-solving strategy that works successfully in multiple trials, they’ll tend to adopt the same strategy even in situations when more efficient solutions are available.” https://www.futilitycloset.com/2022/01/20/the-einstellung-effect/
Machine to Melt Moon Rocks and Derive Metals May Launch in 2024 — “…a Houston-based company says there is value in the gray, dusty regolith spread across the entire lunar surface. The firm, Lunar Resources, is developing technology to extract iron, aluminum, magnesium, and silicon from the Moon’s regolith. These materials, in turn, would be used to manufacture goods on the Moon.” https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/01/machine-to-melt-moon-rocks-and-derive-metals-may-launch-in-2024/
“currently, it is unclear to what degree climate change has affected tropical cyclone intensity or when the impact of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity will be detectable in the future” https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-021-1026-x
Find A, B, and C as distinct integers. There is only one solution.
[Solution]