Links for 2021-11-13
Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions: “Even if the social situation were vastly improved, on my read of things, everybody still dies because there is nothing that a handful of socially coordinated projects can do, or even a handful of major governments who aren't willing to start nuclear wars over things, to prevent somebody else from building AGI and killing everyone 3 months or 2 years later. There's no obvious winnable position into which to play the board.” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CpvyhFy9WvCNsifkY/discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-interventions
Trion Space: Chinese investors advance satellite internet in Europe https://www-sueddeutsche-de.translate.goog/wirtschaft/internet-satellitengestuetztes-internet-internetkommunikation-china-liechtenstein-1.5414747?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=nui
Google’s DeepMind publishes paper with 19 authors that extensively relies on Pearl’s Causal Inference theory https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.10819
BYU algorithm accurately predicts when teens likely to have suicidal thoughts, behavior https://news.byu.edu/intellect/byu-algorithm-accurately-predicts-when-teens-likely-to-have-suicidal-thoughts-behavior
“Superforecasters” are exceptions to two of the more robust psychological generalizations of the last century: 1.Contra Kahneman, they use base rates; 2.Contra Festinger, they tolerate dissonance https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207021001473?dgcid=author
A large-scale genetic study suggests shared biological pathways contribute to irritable bowel syndrome and mental health disorders such as anxiety. https://www.ndorms.ox.ac.uk/news/large-scale-genetic-study-reveals-new-clues-for-the-shared-origins-of-irritable-bowel-syndrome-and-mental-health-disorders
Video games don’t have an effect on wellbeing. Study of > 38K people who have played an average of 23 years. Replace video games with playing an instrument; tennis, knitting,.. Video games are just a thing some people do, not a brain-altering evil https://psyarxiv.com/8cxyh
“I find no evidence that child reported violence against other people increases after a new violent video game is released. Thus, policies that place restrictions on video game sales to minors are unlikely to reduce violence.” https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167268121002006
Chris Albon (director of ML at Wikimedia) has made lots of useful-looking flashcard and other learning resources for ML and datascience. https://chrisalbon.com/
The hierarchy of evidence: meta-analysis vs. registered studies kirkegaard.substack.com/p/the-hierarchy-of-evidence-meta-analysis
“We find that in times of food scarcity, neurons reduce their ATP consumption at the cost of coding precision.” https://www.cell.com/neuron/fulltext/S0896-6273(21)00839-4
"In short, the public is coming to know that the universities have approved positions on certain topics, and thus the public is quite rationally reducing its confidence in research that comes out of universities." https://quillette.com/2021/11/08/the-need-for-rationality-in-a-hostile-world/
"Compared with older generations, LGBTQI+ Gen Z individuals experience much higher rates of mental health issues, including symptoms of depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation." https://www.americanprogress.org/article/lgbtqi-members-of-generation-z-face-unique-social-and-economic-concerns/
Birds
New Marshmallow-Test in parrots: African grey parrots may have better self-control than macaws https://www.mpg.de/17804523/1105-orni-new-marshmallow-test-in-parrots-154562-x
African grey can perform some cognitive tasks at levels beyond that of 5-year-old humans. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2019/02/harvard-study-shows-parrots-can-pass-classic-test-of-intelligence/
"Among others, bird cognition encompasses abilities such as delay of gratification, mental time travel, reasoning, metacognition, mirror self-recognition, theory of mind, and third-party intervention." https://www.cell.com/trends/cognitive-sciences/fulltext/S1364-6613(16)00042-5
New Zealand birds are capable of statistical inference. https://www.science.org/content/article/new-zealand-birds-show-humanlike-ability-make-predictions
Researchers show conscious processes in birds' brains for the first time https://phys.org/news/2020-09-conscious-birds-brains.html
Cognitive performance of four-months-old ravens may parallel adult apes https://phys.org/news/2020-12-cognitive-four-months-old-ravens-parallel-adult.html
New Study Finds That Crows Are So Intelligent They Understand the Concept of Zero https://mymodernmet.com/crows-understand-zero/