Links for 2021-10-28
“Not every article needs to include publicly accountable forecasting—but more of them should. Today we launch the Metaculus Journal, publishing weekly deep dives on science, tech, policy, and politics with analysis supported by testable predictions.” https://www.metaculus.com/project/journal/
Notes on "Inadequate Equilibria" by Eliezer Yudkowsky: “You shouldn't expect "free energy" in a system, that is low hanging fruit for the thing that a lot of others are successfully competing for whether it's money, status, or something else. However, the thing people are competing for may not be the most relevant outcome and there may be low hanging fruit there. For example, people could be effectively competing for status when donating to charity, meaning there is no free energy to easily donate a small amount of money and receive a large amount of status, but there may be opportunities to donate a small amount of money and help a large number of people…A system is "inadequate" if it misses low hanging fruit to receive a large benefit…Usually when we find trillion-dollar bills lying on the ground in real life, it’s a symptom of (1) a central-command bottleneck that nobody else is allowed to fix, as with the European Central Bank wrecking Europe, or (2) a system with enough moving parts that at least two parts are simultaneously broken, meaning that single actors cannot defy the system. To modify an old aphorism: usually, when things suck, it’s because they suck in a way that’s a Nash equilibrium.” https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/qa1z6v/notes_on_inadequate_equilibria_by_eliezer/
Applied Mathematical Logic For The Practicing Researcher https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D883gQaC4gfMpyzPK/applied-mathematical-logic-for-the-practicing-researcher
Ivory poaching and the rapid evolution of tusklessness in African elephants https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe7389
“As income increases, the probability of marriage also increases such that men in the highest income category are about 57 percentage points more likely to marry than men in the lowest income category. The same is not true for women.” https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-ideal-husband-a-man-in-possession-of-a-good-income
Individual Differences in Executive Functions Are Almost Entirely Genetic in Origin https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2762790/
The Battle of Kapyong: "The Canadian and Australian battalions bore the brunt of the assault and stopped an entire PVA division during the hard-fought defensive battle...critical in assisting to prevent a breakthrough against the UN central front, and ultimately the capture of Seoul." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kapyong
The horse bit and bridle kicked off ancient empires – a new giant dataset tracks the societal factors that drove military technology https://theconversation.com/the-horse-bit-and-bridle-kicked-off-ancient-empires-a-new-giant-dataset-tracks-the-societal-factors-that-drove-military-technology-170073